Oh, When Those Drones Come Flying In
Oh, When Those Drones Come Flying In
As you can tell by the timing of this newsletter, I spent recent hours writing it up. I am sending it today because of the urgency and horror of yesterday’s events. My Passover newsletter will come end of the week. And then maybe a break . . .Thanks for considering my thoughts and tell me what you think.
I was glued to the computer when the Iranian drones and missiles invaded Israel. Fortunately, Israeli defenses with American technological help and the assistance of British, French and Jordanian air forces thwarted a massive destruction of Israeli lives and property. Selfishly, I was relieved that neither I nor my family had to overnight in my home’s bomb shelter (Americans, imagine that! An extra room qua bomb shelter next to the washer and dryer) which the Israelis take for granted. I am not sure which side of the Atlantic defines normal these days. A dear pastor friend, Ed Hurley, sent me a message with prayers, which I appreciate. We adventured together in our days serving our communities. Friends know what hurts the other and his reach out meant a lot.
I wrote back my thanks and said that I believe we are looking at Sarajevo, 1914.
Ed and I stood together on the corner where the Serbian assassin, Gavrilo Princip put a bullet through the Hapsburg heir designate Archduke Franz Ferdinand’s jugular vein as he was riding in an open car. The twentieth century was defined by the world’s reaction to this single event, the classic butterfly wings across the ocean precipitating a hurricane far away.
As the drones came flying in over Jerusalem; things, whatever they will become tomorrow will never be the same as they were yesterday. We don’t know the future, but I feel that we may well be on the brink of something, and that something is not good.
Back to Sarajevo.
World War I, World War II, the Japanese rape of Nanjing, the Russian revolution, the dissolution of the Ottoman empire and the Turkish genocide against the Armenians, the Soviet massacre of the Kulaks and the near destruction of European Jewry, the wars in Korea and Vietnam, and the specter of nuclear destruction—all of these and more were made possible in the aftermath of Sarajevo’s fluttering butterfly wings. History is viewed in a rear-view mirror, and of course we don’t know what would have happened if Mr. Princip had missed his mark. (BTW, it is interesting to note that Princip died four years later from tuberculosis while imprisoned in Terezin, the same place that 30 years later served as a concentration camp for Czech Jews.) One could write a great novel on the counter factual, what if the shots missed their mark or if the assassin’s gun backfired, or if his morning alarm clock didn’t go off?
Someone else can write that great novel. I already wrote a great novel.
World War I began with valiant expectations on both sides. The French went off to war as though they were going to a picnic in the Ardennes. Proudly perched on top of their horses with their swords brandished and ready for battle, French soldiers wore felt hats to indicate their rank in the army. Pretty soon on, metal helmets replaced cloth chapeaux, together with armored vehicles, biplanes, gatling guns, mustard gas and trench warfare. War waging would never be the same.
On November 11, 1918, World War I ended sort of abruptly.
Essentially, the Germans and Austrians and Ottomans ran out of soldiers and war material. They could no longer replenish their guns or their front lines and they surrendered. Hitler echoed a common denunciation of the higher ups. The military brass decided to end the war and accept a humiliating defeat, even though not a single square centimeter of Germany was occupied. It appeared to the man with the silly mustache, as it did to so many other German army grunts, that the Kaiser and the power elite sold out Germany and all the footsoldiers’ sacrifice was for nothing. The French and the British had extensive empires to replenish their troops and supplies. And American troops coming late to the party with their derring do pushed the allies over the top. The Germans and their buddies just ran out of steam, and that phase of the twentieth century battle came to an end.
Last night, the Iranian drones and missiles from Iran and Lebanon and Yemen came flying over Jerusalem. The unthinkable is now reality. Warfare has changed. From horses, swords, and felt hats we now have pilotless airplanes, missiles and defensive shields covering the sky. All this in technicolor, too. That is a lot of technology in just one long century. The only thing I can say with confidence is that the next war will not look like the last war.
Now, the morning after the drones come flying in, here are my takeaways.
The decades long Iranian assault on Israel, with the aid of its proxies, has nothing to do with any occupation of any territory. It is naive to think that if Israel pushed back to—you name the border—the 75-year existential threat to Israel would disappear.
Offensive and defensive technology and war material are decisive determinants of victory.
All those years I lobbied our political leaders for American military, technological, financial and political support for the State of Israel together with my friends from Alabama, (governments come and go) was precisely for nights like last night, when the drones come flying in.
Canaries are necessary to keep coal miners safe and healthy. Israel is also necessary for western civilization to keep us and our values safe from medieval barbarism and religious extremism over there and over here, too.
America and Israel are strategic partners. When each is healthy, the other is strong. When one falters, their partner suffers too. This, regardless of the prime minister or makeup of Congress of the occupant in the White House.
Nations which are strong are more likely to live with enduring peace than nations which are weak. Those who advocate for weakening Israel by withholding arms support, regardless of their intentions, will delay peace. A strong and robust Israel is better able to achieve peace and coexistence than a weak and hobbled Israel, whether the pressure comes from beyond or within Israel’s borders. In the realpolitik of nations, tikkun olam is a secondary concern. (I do not say this with any happiness.)
If people, like me, really want to end the occupation and benefit the Palestinian people and the Palestinian cause, a strong and defendable and victorious Israel is much more likely to make the necessary hard decisions than a weak and scared and defeated Israel.
When the situation gets real, as it did when the drones come flying in, the silliness stops and responsible leaders act more responsibly.
Our fantasies, the fantasies of the right and the fantasies of the left, can be kind of fun to rally around. But when the drones come flying in, it is better to leave our predetermined fantasies on the pillow and get to work in the real world. The ruby slippers don’t really work in getting Israel, the Palestinians, the Americans, the Europeans, the Arabs where they need to go. Cooler heads are required if real change is to happen for real people in the real world.
As Israel has been warning for decades, the Iranian threat today is real and potent. Tomorrow, it will be even realer and more potent. The ayatollahs are smart and determined and clever. Israel, the United States and the west in general need to be smarter, more determined and cleverer.
When the drones come flying in, we can look both backwards and forwards at the same time. No more felt hats. Tomorrow will be more challenging. I pray we have the resolve and the resources and the smarts to make our world better and safer and happier, too.
In light of last night’s terror, permit me to end with some scripture, Psalm 121. Pardon the use of male language. I opted to include it for the comfort of familiarity.
Psalm 121
A song of ascents.
1 I lift up my eyes to the mountains—
where does my help come from?
2 My help comes from the Lord,
the Maker of heaven and earth.
3 He will not let your foot slip—
he who watches over you will not slumber;
4 indeed, he who watches over Israel
will neither slumber nor sleep.
5 The Lord watches over you—
the Lord is your shade at your right hand;
6 the sun will not harm you by day,
nor the moon by night.
7 The Lord will keep you from all harm—
he will watch over your life;
8 the Lord will watch over your coming and going
both now and forevermore.